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Out of all of the statistics in baseball, ERA is one of the oldest and most reliable. ERA – or Earned Run Average – is a stat for pitchers that measures how many earned runs they allow every nine innings. This metric has been around since the early 1900s and continues to be one of the most common methods of measuring the success and effectiveness of pitchers.
Obviously, the goal of every pitcher is to avoid giving up runs. Therefore, the lower a pitcher’s ERA, the more effective they have been while on the mound. Keep in mind that unearned runs that come about with the help of errors or pass balls that are not the pitcher’s fault are not calculated into a pitcher’s ERA. Therefore, a pitcher’s ERA isn’t negatively impacted by mistakes made by his teammates, which helps to make ERA an effective measuring stick for how well a pitcher has performed over a given period of time.
With ERA being such a fundamental part of evaluating and grading pitchers, every baseball fan needs to understand what a pitcher’s ERA means and how it’s calculated. Therefore, we put together a guide explaining ERA more in-depth that will hopefully answer every question about one of the statistical categories that is fundamental to understanding baseball.
Defining a Baseball ERA
ERA is calculated with a simple equation. The number of innings a pitcher has logged is divided by the number of earned runs he has allowed. That number is then multiplied by nine, referring to the standard number of innings in a baseball game. The end product is the ERA, which is the average number of earned runs a pitcher is giving up every nine innings. For example, if a pitcher has thrown 20 innings and allowed five runs, his ERA will be 2.25.
As mentioned, if a pitcher gives up unearned runs, those are not calculated into their ERA. Therefore, not every run a pitcher gives up is counted when calculating their ERA. If a pitcher pitches poorly after an error that extends an inning, none of those runs will count toward his ERA, nor will his struggles be reflected by his ERA. Likewise, if good defense helps to prevent runs, a pitcher’s ERA will benefit and could appear better than his performance.
In other words, there are some flaws when it comes to calculating a pitcher’s ERA. It doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story of how a pitcher handles adversity or avoids giving up runs after one of his teammates makes an error. A pitcher’s ERA can also be heavily influenced by defense, the ballpark where he’s pitching, and other factors out of a pitcher’s control. Nevertheless, ERA typically provides a good gauge of how a pitcher performs.
What is a Good ERA?
A good ERA in baseball is usually any ERA under 4.00, especially for a starting pitcher. An ERA under 3.00 is considered exceptional for starters. It’s more common for elite relief pitchers to have an ERA below 3.00 because they pitch fewer innings, making it a little easier to avoid giving up runs. Among starters, any ERA close to 3.00 – possibly below is considered excellent.
During the 2023 season, only five MLB starters finished with an ERA under 3.00, showing how difficult it can be to maintain an ERA that low throughout a full season. Of course, the 2022 season saw 19 starting pitchers finish with an ERA under 3.00. That includes Justin Verlander, who led the league with a 1.75 ERA. Needless to say, maintaining an ERA under 2.00 puts a starting pitcher in rarified air.
What is a Low ERA?
Baseball fans may recognize that most starting pitchers have an ERA between 3.50 and 4.50. Any ERA below 3.50 usually indicates that a pitcher is above-average, or at least having an above-average season. Likewise, any ERA over 4.50 usually indicates a below-average pitcher. Once a pitcher goes over an ERA of 5.00, they can start to be considered a liability for his team.
It’s important to keep in mind that a pitcher’s ERA fluctuates from one start to the next, especially early in the season. Before a pitcher has a chance to accumulate a lot of innings in a given season, every run allowed can increase his ERA significantly. Therefore, it’s important to recognize how many starts a pitcher has made and how many innings they’ve thrown while judging their ERA.
How to Consider ERA for Betting?
Predicting the performance of the two starting pitchers in a baseball game is one of the biggest factors in placing a bet. Typically, a pitcher’s ERA will be the first stat to look at when trying to evaluate a starting pitcher. Therefore, a pitcher’s ERA is likely to be a meaningful factor in what team you might be on in any given baseball game.
However, it’s usually not enough to look solely at a pitcher’s ERA. Bettors should look at how a pitcher’s ERA has changed in recent starts. Has it been trending upward or going down lately? It can also be relevant to look at the differences in a pitcher’s ERA is different based on whether they are pitching at home as opposed to on the road. As mentioned, there are many factors that ERA doesn’t always measure, so it’s a good idea to look at a pitcher’s ERA in different situations while also considering how it has changed over time.
Finally, bettors shouldn’t look at the ERA of starting pitchers as the deciding factor in making a bet. Granted, the team with the better starting pitcher will have an inherent edge in virtually every game. However, starting pitchers don’t always pitch deep into games, reducing their influence in determining the winner, which also makes the ERA of each starting pitcher a little less important. Most importantly, don’t forget to practise safe gambling habits.
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Baseball ERA FAQs
A good ERA in baseball is usually 3.50 or below. If a pitcher has an ERA below 3.00 – or even below 2.00 – they should be considered an elite pitcher.
A pitcher’s ERA is one of the best ways of measuring their effectiveness because it’s the best stat for quantifying how many runs a pitcher allows every nine innings that are his fault.
Bettors should always consider the ERA of the two starting pitchers when betting on a baseball game, although it should be one of several factors to consider.
