How to bet on the Underdog in Sports Betting

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If sport was predictable, every single bettor on the planet would be a millionaire – if you know what’s going to happen, you’d never lose a single wager!

But nobody can possibly know what’s going to happen, which is why we love to watch the NFL, NBA, MLB and every other sport under the sun besides.

It’s for that very reason why betting on the underdog is a strategy deployed by some bettors; cheering on the team or player considered unlikely to win can be a joy in itself, let alone the possibility of having a winning bet along the way at juicy odds.

Who is the underdog in betting? As you may know, betting odds are linked to an implied probability of winning. The team/player/horse with a higher implied probability has lower odds – and vice versa, so the underdog is the selection with the perceived lower chance of winning but the longer price with the sportsbooks.

So can you be successful siding with the underdog in betting? That’s what this article aims to find out…

The Psychology of Underdog Betting

Pick a sport and you can almost guarantee that an underdog or two will win in any given gameweek.

Predicting which ones, well, that’s the tricky part, but a key part of betting psychology is to shake off the notion that the favorites always win – it simply isn’t true.

We all love the idea that ‘every dog has its day’, but with a sports betting underdog the difference is that bettors should be seeking out those that can be considered ‘value’ plays, that is, their implied probability of winning is greater (in your opinion) than the odds being supplied by BetVictor Canada.

There’s scientific evidence to suggest that most human beings instinctively root for an underdog. But that shouldn’t inform your betting – only those outsiders with a viable chance of winning a game or tournament should be on your radar.

Analyzing Underdog Odds

There are two general types of underdog betting odds: game-by-game and futures.

In an NFL game, there are two teams – one is the favorite to win and the other is the underdog, unless both are priced at odds of 10/11 in a game considered to be ‘50/50’. In a two-team event, often the favorite will be odds-on and the underdog odds-against, i.e. your return should they win would be greater than your stake.

When wagering on who you think will win the Super Bowl, NBA Championship, etc at the start of the season, the underdog will be those teams outside the first five or six in the market. The biggest underdog odds to win were the St Louis Rams in 1999, who prevailed at Super Bowl XXXIV despite pre-season futures odds of 150/1!

Underdog spread betting affords opportunities to wager positively on an outsider without them necessarily needing to win the game, while there are also underdog prop bets, points totals, and more to consider.

The Underdog Betting Strategy

So we know that underdogs do win, but how can we spot them in advance?

There are strong underdogs and weak favorites, and either of these provides opportunities. In major sports in North America, for example, there is a defined home-field advantage – in this case, you can ask yourself, ‘is it better to bet on the underdog?’ if the home team has the longer odds.

For those seeking underdog betting tips, be sure to do your homework. Find out which players make a team tick – if they are absent through injury or simply being rested, then the underdog might just become more likely to win.

That’s just one element of the betting on underdogs strategy. Consider each team’s form, their recent head-to-head record, their motivations (who NEEDS to win the game), and their current dynamics – is their coach facing the sack? Have their players spoken out negatively in the press?

Compile all of this research into a single overview and you’ll have the context from which you can decide whether an underdog is justifiably so… or if they have a stronger chance of winning than their odds imply.

No matter who you choose to wager on, remember to do so responsibly – learn more at our Safer Gambling portal.

Betting on Underdogs Across Major Sports Leagues

It’s true to say that some sports leagues lend themselves to unlikely victories than others. So which is the best for betting on the underdog?

MLB Underdog Betting Strategy

With up to 15 games on any night of the MLB schedule, there are opportunities aplenty for underdog victories.

Remember the vagaries of home-field advantage when betting underdogs in baseball. Some teams are just more comfortable playing in front of their own fans, while others play at such idiosyncratic venues they already have an edge before a pitch has been thrown.

The pitcher is often considered the most important player in baseball, so be sure to find out who’s starting on the mound – and research their recent stats and those when facing the opposition’s batters.

In 2023, the best MLB underdogs to bet on were undoubtedly the Houston Astros, who went 29-19 when the odds were against them. Some teams simply thrive when the pressure is on their opponents, and keeping on top of these trends is key to any baseball underdog betting system.

NHL Underdog Betting System

Did you know that since the year 2020, underdogs playing at home in the NHL beat their puck line spread on average around 60% of the time? And in the early going of 2023-24, the Vancouver Canucks won 13 of their 21 games when the betting outsider?

The answer to why underdogs do better in hockey is a difficult one to fathom, although there’s definitely worth in backing well-rested teams over those that have faced a punishing recent schedule.

And wait for team news before placing your bets. It’s amazing how the absence of a key goal scorer or goaltender can make a difference to a team’s performances.

NBA Underdog Betting System

There are so many games played during the NBA season that it’s almost a given that teams will embark on winning and losing streaks – those tend to have a major influence on the basketball betting odds.

But such runs of form tend to come to an end at some point, so don’t be sucked into a mindset that a streak will automatically continue – consider the team news, home/away splits, head-to-head record, etc, to identify an underdog on the verge of ending their poor results.

Because basketball is such a high scoring sport, bettors might have more joy backing the underdog with a point spread, as opposed to the moneyline market. This way, they can perform well but lose the game… without affecting your wager.

NFL Underdog Betting Strategy

One of the premier NFL underdog betting strategies in recent seasons has been to back the outsider in televised games, while another of the best-performing underdog bets NFL is to favor the ‘unders’ line in the totals market.

Why has this been so successful for bettors? Who knows, although there’s no doubt that teams struggle to perform their best on a Thursday night, for example, after playing late on the prior Sunday.

And some teams thrive when written off: during the 2023 regular season, the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans all posted a 55% or better win ratio as the underdog.

Of course, past performance does not necessarily predict future results – the key to any underdog betting strategy is research and analysis.

Find the Best Underdog Bets with BetVictor

To be successful betting on underdogs, you of course need great odds – and you are guaranteed those right here at BetVictor Canada.

You can place your underdog bets today using our latest odds on a huge A-Z of sports, and take advantage of our welcome bonus too – a great way to get up and running without needing an underdog betting promo code.

Come and join us today!

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