What is EPA in the NFL – Extra Points Added Explained

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In recent years, analytics and advanced stats have become a growing part of all sports. The NFL has been no exception to this, specifically with relation to expected points added (EPA). The EPA metric measures how many points a team is expected to score on a given play. This takes into account the down, distance, and field position at the start of a play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position at the end of the play, calculating whether the team is better off before or after a particular play.

In the NFL, EPA meaning and usefulness are only starting to be discovered. However, it’s quickly becoming a useful tool for evaluating teams and individual players, especially quarterbacks. EPA can also be useful in evaluating play-calling, as well as the performance of the opposing defense. In short, EPA helps to grade every single play in an NFL game with the teams that post the highest EPA theoretically being the best teams.

Therefore, it was important to put together a guide on how to understand the meaning of EPA so that cans can gain a better understanding of a metric that is likely to become more widespread in the years to come. Plus, with another way of grading teams, EPA is potentially useful in comparing how two teams match up against one another.

Defining EPA in the NFL

The goal of EPA is to measure the success of a given play based on the expected number of points a team will score on that drive based on the current situation. For every play, the down, distance, and field position are analyzed to calculate the expected points for that drive. Needless to say, the closer a team gets to the end zone, the higher the EPA. Likewise, the EPA starts to drop the closer a team gets to fourth down, especially if they aren’t making progress toward getting a first down.

Since a new EPA is calculated for every different play, it’s possible to compare the EPA from one play to the next. For example, if a team starts a drive on their 25-yard line, the expected points on such a play could be 1.1. If the team makes a 15-yard gain on the first play of the drive, setting up first down at their 40-yard line, the expected points could increase to 1.9. Therefore, the EPA on that play is 0.8.

Ultimately, the points scored on a drive compared to the EPA at the start of the drive will help to show how efficient that team was on the drive and throughout the entire game. If a team scores seven points on a drive that began on its 25-yard line with an EPA of 1.1, that’s 5.9 added points. At the same time, if a drive began at midfield with an EPA of 2.5 and ended with a field goal, that’s only 0.5 added points. Of course, if the drive that started at midfield ends without a score, then 2.5 points would be deducted from a team’s EPA.

Part of the purpose behind EPA is to analyze a team’s success and proficiency based on the situation. For instance, a five-yard gain and third and 10 and a five-yard gain on third and 4 both count for five yards in a team’s overall yardage stats. But a five-yard gain on third and 10 doesn’t help a team score points on that drive whereas a five-yard gain on third and 4 increases EPA. Not all yards are created equal; it largely depends on the situation. This is what EPA tries to quantify.

What Are the Pros and Cons of EPA in the NFL?

Pros of EPA

The obvious benefit of EPA is that it helps to analyze the performance of a team and individual players. It can be particularly useful in comparing the performance of a team following a personnel change, specifically at the quarterback position. Looking at EPA can also tell us a lot about how a drive unfolds because it can be calculated after every play. Therefore, it’s possible to measure how much progress a team is making toward scoring points from one play to the next.

This can shed a lot of insight into the overall efficiency of a team rather than basing things solely on the total number of yards they collected or the total points they scored in a game. Obviously, we have a tendency to assume that the teams that score the most points are the best offensive teams. But with EPA, we can see how many points a team was expected to score based on where drives started and how those drives ended. This is arguably a better metric for gauging success.

Cons of EPA

One of the flaws with EPA is that it’s not able to evaluate how a team gained yards, only if they gained yards in a helpful way or not. This means EPA can sometimes be used to grade the performance of a quarterback because they have an integral role on every play. However, EPA struggles to quantify the impact of other positions. For instance, on a 15-yard pass completion, EPA doesn’t analyze whether the pass was good or if the receiver made an excellent catch and run.

Also, EPA has no way of calculating positive plays that may help a team in the long run but don’t increase their expected points. For example, if a team is running the ball with the lead late in the game, the time coming off the clock helps them win more than trying to score more points. Likewise, short gains on running plays early in the game don’t improve expected points. However, such plays can help to set up big plays on play-action later in the game. This is something that EPA can’t measure.

How to Consider EPA for Betting?

For NFL games, EPA is one metric to consider when betting. Rather than looking at a team’s points per game or yards per game averages, EPA can shed some light on their overall efficiency compared to the rest of the league. Are they scoring more points than they should be or falling short of the league average? Just keep in mind that EPA is only one metric that is far from perfect. Also, calculating an accurate EPA requires a substantial sample size, making it more useful late in the season and not as useful when making bets early in the season. Most importantly, make sure you are always practicing safe gambling habits.

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NFL EPAs FAQ