The four-game series between the Miami Marlins (35-64) and the New York Mets (50-48) comes to an end on Monday evening. The concluding fixture in the four-game set will take place at LoanDepot Park in Miami, with the first pitch set for 6.40 p.m. ET.
All three games in the current series between the Marlins and the Mets have been close run things, which many expected. The opening contests saw the Marlins edge out the Mets 6-4 before an immediate response by the Mets, as they recorded a 1-0 win. Yesterday’s game saw the Marlins go ahead in the four-game series with a 4-2 triumph, so the final contest will either see the Marlins make it a 3-1 overall win or the Mets will tie things up at 2-2, which is the best the latter can hope for.
The season series sees the Marlins one ahead at 5-4 against the Mets, so a Mets victory in Miami would also level that score up too. You could argue that on Sunday, what let the Mets down was their inability to convert hits into runs. They had eight in total but only returned two runs, as they ended up on the losing side of a 4-2 result. On the road, the Mets are now 24-22 and have moved to 47-51 against the spread.
The Marlins will have been delighted to have recorded their second victory in the series, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger the players responsible for the win. The former hit a three-run homer, while the latter delivered a solo shot.
Betting Insights
- On the eighty-three occasions the Marlins have been the underdogs this season, they’ve recorded thirty-one wins, which is a success rate of 37.3%.
- When sportsbooks have had the Marlins as the underdogs at +140 or bigger on the moneyline, which has been thirty-six times this term, they’ve won eleven times.
- The moneyline implies that the Marlins have a 41.7% chance of success in this contest.
- From fifty-three contests where they’ve been the favourites this season, the Mets have won twenty-nine times, a win rate of 54.7%.
- The Mets have been -167 or more in six games this season, winning four of those fixtures.
- The moneyline is set to imply the likelihood of a Mets win in this one is 62.5%.
The Prediction
We always start our prediction analysis by looking at what’s happened previously, and that’s two Marlins wins and one success for the Mets. The Marlins have also limited the Mets to seven runs in this series so far. Victory for the Marlins, who are at home in Miami, will close out the series in style for them.
In terms of which team will win this one, taking everything into account, we’re going to predict a narrow win for the Mets to bring the series up to 2-2. Our score prediction is 4-3 Mets, and with that, we will also tip under 8.5 runs, too, based on this being the case in three of the last four.
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