EFL pundit Gab Sutton previews and picks his best bets for the weekend’s EFL action
Ipswich to win and Both Teams To Score – 19/5
Middlesbrough v Ipswich Town
Middlesbrough have been one of the most entertaining teams in the Championship this season. Despite this, they’re 12th and have lost the same number of games as they’ve won.
Michael Carrick’s side have flair in abundance. Their match-day squads tend to be jam-packed with players who can create something, whether it be the control of Dan Barlaser in midfield, the pace of Isaiah Jones out wide, the craft of Sammy Silvera and Morgan Rogers, or the movement of Emmanuel Latte Lath.
Despite this, Boro have defensive shortcomings which were obvious at the start of the season and, after a period of solidification around October time, have since reappeared.
The Teessiders can be prone to moments of carelessness in possession. They have players who are reluctant to close down their opponents or track back, which is a problem magnified by the absence of an athletic, tenacious enforcer, with Jonny Howson coming to the end of his career.
That’s perhaps the main difference between Middlesbrough and Ipswich, who play a similar style of play under Kieran McKenna.
While the Tractor Boys aren’t perfect defensively – they’ve kept four clean sheets in seven away from home – and tend to have a clearer plan for what to do if they lose the ball.
A key facet of their patterns of play is that there’s one player stretching the game for the man in possession, another coming short, and a third protecting them from behind so they have the insurance in a way that other teams who play their style don’t.
“Middlesbrough and Ipswich are both exciting teams to watch who can create a lot of chances, but the visitors have a strong plan for what to do if they lose the ball, whereas the hosts don’t.”
Double Chance: Draw/ Wednesday – 3/4
Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday’s improvement in performances under Danny Röhl has been as stark as could have been expected.
Three points from their first 11 games was the worst start to a season in Championship history. Five defeats in his first six games left the Owls bottom of the league, 10 points off safety.
A fantastic four-point haul from Leicester and Blackburn at home was much-needed. Even with those results, the gap hasn’t changed – and a 14-point chasm would’ve felt insurmountable.
In contrast with the first 10 weeks of the season under Xisco Muñoz, Wednesday are playing with a clear mid-block pressing identity, and far more confidence in possession.
Röhl has been getting the best out of Josh Windass, who was cutting a frustrated figure earlier in the campaign, and motivating Barry Bannan, who looked lost under Muñoz.
The midfield trio of Bannan, Will Vaulks and George Byers is thriving once again. Bambo Diaby has been a rock in central defence, Akin Famewo is fitter than he’s ever been when filling in at left-back. Moreover, academy prospect Bailey-Tye Cadamarteri scored on his first start for the club at 18.
Hosts Stoke can create chances in transition under Alex Neil, through the counter-attacking qualities of Tyrese Campbell, but they struggle to break teams down. Especially as a midfield pairing of Josh Laurent and Ben Pearson doesn’t give them oodles of creativity, despite some skilled attacking players.
If Wednesday are well-organised again, and press aggressively in their mid-block, they could nullify Stoke’s attacking players and expose their limitations.
“Sheffield Wednesday’s improvement in performances under Danny Röhl has been more drastic than results might suggest. But, after an impressive four-point haul from Leicester and Blackburn, they could get a result at a Stoke side who can struggle to break teams down.”
Burton to win – 9/5
Burton Albion v Stevenage
The Brewers are having a streaky season.
They began with two points from seven games. They then swung to the other extreme with 17 points from the following seven, then back to another disappointing return of one point from five.
Burton are hoping, though, that they can turn a corner, after an encouraging showing in their last league game, even if it ended in a 2-0 home loss to now-leaders Portsmouth.
Furthermore, Dino Maamria’s side rediscovered that winning feeling with a 3-2 midweek victory at Wrexham in the EFL Trophy, to reach the round of 16.
It was a strong XI that won at the Racecourse Ground (STōK Cae Ras), and a showing of crisp passing and sturdy shape will give them plenty of confidence to take into their league campaign.
Plus, Burton have been able to welcome winger Kwadwo Baah back from injury. The Watford loanee gives them plenty of pace, skill and quality on the flank.
“Based on the last couple of performances, I feel Burton have turned a corner and could be ready to put together another run, even though they’re facing a tough Stevenage side.”
Double Chance: Draw/Oxford – 20/21
Peterborough United v Oxford United
Peterborough have built their promotion push on the strength of their first XI.
The Posh are having a fantastic season, one fans went into with more trepidation than the previous campaign, when the promotion push was an expectation rather than the hope it was this year.
Nevertheless, Darren Ferguson’s side have been fortunate to keep key players fit and available. The Posh have reduced their dependence on want-away front-man Jonson Clarke-Harris thanks to the contributions of Ricky Jade-Jones, who offers the pace they wanted in their side. However, they rely heavily on others.
Ronnie Edwards will almost certainly get snapped up in January, being an elite talent. So could wide and withdrawn forwards Kwame Poku and Ephron Mason-Clark. Keeping Harrison Burrows, Hector Kyprianou, Archie Collins and Joel Randall fit, fresh and available is also a must.
Two points from four games against fellow top six opposition would suggest that, while Peterborough can demolish the lesser sides, they can also struggle against the better teams, who often have more knowhow, experience, and crucially depth.
Oxford look stronger in that regard, thanks to excellent recruitment in the summer, with goalkeeper James Beadle and winger Stan Mills making a big impact, on loan from Brighton and Everton respectively.
In last weekend’s 2-0 FA Cup victory over Grimsby, the Yellows were able to field a strong starting XI featuring key men Cameron Brannagan and Marcus McGuane in midfield. However, they also had Josh McEachran and Alex Gorrin waiting in the wings.
The U’s might be a tad short up top. Otherwise, they have a plethora of options available to new Head Coach, Des Buckingham, highly rated across the globe for his work at Melbourne City, Mumbai City, and many more.
“Peterborough have a comparable first XI to Oxford, but what separates the two sides is that the visitors can put proven League One players on the bench – suffice to say, I’m surprised Posh are considered such heavy favourites.”
Grimsby to win – 5/4
Grimsby Town v Crewe Alexandra
Saturday’s game will be David Artell’s first home match in charge of Grimsby. Ironically, it comes against the only other club he’s managed so far, the one he spent a combined 10 years at in a playing, and academy and senior managing capacity.
It’s been an encouraging start for Artell in Cleethorpes, with a creditable 1-1 draw at MK Dons in his first game in charge.
Their hosts that night were a few weeks further along in their own stylistic evolution, as well as having a squad better equipped. So for the Mariners to implement their game as well as they did, and have the better chances, was impressive.
Town also went to Oxford in the FA Cup and dictated even more of the play. The League One high-flyers’ quality told in a 2-0 defeat, however.
Kamil Conteh has immediately grasped what his new Head Coach wants from him in possession, dictating the tempo at the base of midfield. The press-resistant number six could really stand out in an Artell side.
Alex Hunt is relishing the change of style, too. He looks bright and inventive in his advanced role.
Grimsby certainly look close to getting their first win of Artell’s reign, against a Crewe side who are having a fantastic season under Lee Bell.
The Alex remain hit by injuries, though. Defender Zac Williams, midfielders Joel Tabiner and Jack Powell plus forward Chris Long are all absent.
The Railwaymen have done incredibly well to amass the points they have in adversity. Their run might come to an end on Saturday, however.
“David Artell has been able to implement his ideas at Grimsby quicker than expected, based on the first two performances, so I think they’re in a good place to record that first win of his reign.”
Tranmere to win – 11/8
Tranmere Rovers v Newport County
The story of Tranmere’s season so far has been that competitive performances have been undermined by defensive deficiencies.
Rovers have arguably the best set of wide options in League Two in Rob Apter, Kieron Morris, Josh Hawkes and Harvey Saunders, although the quartet haven’t always been fit simultaneously.
However, this particular strength has often been overshadowed by basic defensive errors from their centre-backs, Tom Davies and Jordan Turnbull. To add to this, imperfections in the full-back positions and the absence of a powerful, tenacious midfield enforcer, as well as two long-term injuries to key target man Luke Norris.
More recently, however, boss Nigel Adkins has found a formula that will enable Rovers to tick over the points until January. Then, they’re hoping they might be able to bring in the right 2-3 players. Funds will be tight with a large yet imbalanced top-heavy squad, however.
In the last four games, the wide players have continued to shine. Particularly, Rob Apter, who has been one of the stars of the Birkenhead club’s season on loan from Blackpool, bringing pace, skill and an eye for goal, scoring five in his last five games in all competitions.
Moreover, Davies and Turnbull have cut out the errors. Lee O’Connor and Connor Wood have settled in ok in the full-back spots without setting the world alight. Regan Hendry has excelled in midfield, while Connor Jennings has been able to operate as an alternative reference point to Norris. He is someone who’s versatility and mentality might help the club get through this difficult season.
As such, there’s enough there to suggest that Tranmere’s recent form (eight points from their last four games) may continue as the club pursue a sixth home league win in 11.
Visitors Newport do arrive in Birkenhead off the back of successive league wins, but they looked spent for energy after the 1-1 FA Cup draw with Barnet, in what was described as a sub-par performance.
“Tranmere have picked up lately with eight points from their last four, and the relegation strugglers have won half their home league games this season – I think they’ll get another against Newport.”
EFL Weekend Preview
*Odds subject to change.
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