EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action.
Blackburn to win – Evens
Blackburn Rovers v Swansea City
Blackburn have kick-started their season with three consecutive league wins, and after an opening quarter of the campaign that may have been considered underwhelming, they’re now just a point off the Play-Off spots.
It was an ugly victory for Rovers at the Den, but there’s an identity about the way Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side play, especially with the inverted full-backs.
James Hill and Harry Pickering complete a back-four out of possession, but when the ball’s turned over, the former drifts across to forge a back-three, while the latter joins Sondre Tronstad in midfield, to allow the likes of Joe Rankin-Costello and Sammie Szmodics to push forward.
They still get their width, because right winger Callum Brittain stays high and wide throughout, and while Arnor Sigurdsson does like to cut inside from the left, he does so very late on in moves, normally when dovetailing with Szmodics, or Tyrhys Dolan.
Sigurdsson and Szmodics are normally Blackburn’s brightest attacking performers, so in some respects it’s encouraging for them that they can win at Millwall with neither at their best, and they found other angles of attack.
In this instance, it was the right-sided work of Brittain and Rankin-Costello: the former is a bundle of energy and has made himself undroppable with recent form, while the latter is making his right-sided number eight role his own.
Blackburn are on a roll, while visitors Swansea have lost back-to-back games: they were competitive in their 3-1 loss to Leicester last Saturday, but were defeated 1-0 at home to Watford in midweek.
“I love the identity Blackburn have established, and for them it’s a case of building on last season’s template, whereas for Swansea it’s a season of transition.”
Sunderland to win – Evens
Sunderland v Norwich City
Sunderland have dropped from 4th to 10th by losing their last three league games, but it’s not too much to worry about for Tony Mowbray’s side.
The Black Cats lost at Stoke in that sequence, but they’ve also lost at runaway leaders Leicester, having created chances and competed well, and they’ve lost 4-0 to Middlesbrough, when all the goals came in the second half, after Dan Neil’s red card.
It’s a young team, and there’s an inconsistency that comes with that, as well as three or four areas of their starting XI being a little short.
However, they also have seven or eight areas of their XI that is very strong, which will often outweigh the question marks.
Jobe Bellingham has requested his first name rather than second to be printed on his back, and is starring in his own right with great maturity, along with wide men in Jack Clarke and Patrick Roberts who are among the best in the league.
With Neil back from suspension in midweek, Sunderland should bounce back when they host a Norwich side sliding down the table.
The Canaries enjoyed some early season optimism with 10 points from their first four, as Jonny Rowe was lighting up Carrow Road, but have since taken a paltry seven from nine.
“I’m not so worried about Sunderland’s recent poor form because there’s so much talent in that side, as opposed to Norwich who rely so heavily on Gabriel Sara and Jonny Rowe.”
Double Chance: Draw/Northampton – 7/10
Bristol Rovers v Northampton Town
Northampton could be a team to get behind this season.
In the eyes of the traders, they’re a newly-promoted club that’s struggled historically at this level, with a manager unproven in League One, and a heavy reliance on Sam Hoskins for goals.
The Cobblers, though, play good football, much better than what they’ll get credit for due to a stereotype that’s stuck from what was served up for six years after the League Two title-winning season under Chris Wilder, and before the previous campaign.
Teyn press at a high intensity, and like to keep centre-backs Jordan Willis, Sam Sherring and Manny Monthe on the halfway line from opposing goal-kicks, making it difficult for them to play out, and they get through a lot of work without the ball which is credit to midfielder Shaun McWilliams and others.
Crucial, though, is McWilliams’ partner, Marc Leonard, on loan from Brighton: you never know how quickly he might come into Roberto De Zerbi’s first-team thinking, if European football on that part of the south coast becomes a regularity.
Leonard has an astonishing touch and vision, making him vital to Northampton’s build-up play as they look to enter the final third as often as they did in the first half of Tuesday’s 2-2 draw with Leyton Orient, with Mitch Pinnock and Kieron Bowie getting into some good areas.
A three-minute double-salvo from Hoskins early in the second half, plus Bowie’s subsequent dismissal, dictated the game state that meant the Cobblers were on the back foot for the remainder, and needed to show the resilient side to their game to get a result.
They did that, even if Shaq Forde’s heartbreaking injury-time leveller denied the 10-men all three points, but there’s so many positives to bring in to Saturday’s trip to managerless Bristol Rovers, who have just sacked boss Joey Barton.
“Northampton I think could be a team to get behind, I’m not sure the traders have quite cottoned on to how well they’ve played this season, and I see them getting a result at managerless Bristol Rovers.”
Burton to win – 29/20
Burton Albion v Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient have had a good start in their bid to secure League One status for another season. A run of just two defeats in 11 has them sitting proudly in the top half.
Last Saturday, the O’s could have beaten Barnsley but small details held them back in a 1-1 draw, before Shaq Forde’s injury-time leveller earnt them a point at Northampton in a 2-2 share of the spoils.
Richie Wellens’ side might argue they earnt the point, because they used their man advantage well in the second half, and shaded the quality of chances in the first, at 11v11.
Nonetheless, they didn’t impose themselves in that time as well as they might have liked, some of the attempted patterns of play fell flat, and they had difficulty progressing the ball into the final third.
The man Burton ask to do that is Joe Powell, who is a more advanced or wide player by trade, whom Dino Maamria has converted into a deeper role permanently this season.
That remit suits Powell better, because he has more time to open his legs up and play a long range pass, which often he can’t in those more advanced areas, where he lacks the pace, trickery, or the ability to play the quicker, crisper, more incisive one-touch passes.
The West Ham graduate should be credited, too, for adding the defensive qualities required for the deeper role and having the growth mindset to make it work.
Maamria has also got the best out of Kwadwo Baah, who shone at this level for Rochdale in 2020-21 before a quiet two years at Watford stunted his development, but now the tricky wide man is back to his best.
If Powell and Baah play to their maximum, while Jasper Moon and Ryan Sweeney continue to defend well and Max Crocombe maintains his form between the sticks, the Brewers will be hopeful of continuing their strong recent form.
The East Staffordshire outfit were struggling early on, but climbed into the top half with an unbeaten run, even if it ended at seven games with a 2-1 loss at Carlisle in midweek.
“Dino Maamria should be credited for getting the best out of Joe Powell and Kwadwo Baah this season, and I think a Burton side who have lost just one of their last eight might stay in the top half with a home victory over Leyton Orient, who I didn’t think were great on Tuesday at 11 v 11.”
Double Chance: Draw/Salford – 4/5
Barrow v Salford City
Salford have taken 14 points from the seven games Elliot Watt has started this season, and six from the other eight.
Watt missed the start of the season through injury, but the deep-lying playmaker’s return has made a transformative difference to the Ammies, through his ability to collect the ball off the defence, turn, dictate and create.
With Liam Shephard and Declan John also thriving in full-back roles, and Matt Smith proving a monstrous presence up top, scoring a hat-trick in Tuesday’s 3-0 win at Doncaster, Neil Wood’s side could be serious Play-Off contenders.
So could Barrow: Pete Wild’s side shouldn’t be underestimated, with just three defeats in their first 14 games, as they sit four points off the Play-Offs with a game in hand.
However, the hosts are priced up as odds-on favourites, and it’s hard to side with that given Salford’s form with Watt in their team.
“Elliot Watt has made a transformative difference to Salford since his return from injury, with the Ammies taking 14 points from the seven games he’s started this season compared with six from the other eight. For that reason, I don’t agree with Barrow being odds-on favourites for this one, much though I’m a big fan of the work Pete Wild is doing.”
Notts County to win -1 handicap – 31/10
Notts County v Wrexham
Notts County have had two major set-backs so far this season, and they’ve responded to both impeccably.
After the 5-1 opening day drubbing by Sutton, Luke Williams’ side won six in the next eight, and after the 4-1 humiliation against promotion and local rivals Mansfield, they won back-to-back games.
Throw in the 3-1 victory over Swindon, which followed the 5-4 defeat at Colchester, and the Magpies have reacted to losses with a victory each time, which is why they currently have 30 points from the first 15, sitting in the top three.
It’s true, County have certain defensive imperfections, especially when it comes to the wide areas – arguably a bigger problem so far than the high line which is what people were more concerned about going into the campaign.
Nonetheless, they’ve been just delicious going forward.
Jodi Jones brings pace, guile and craft from left wing-back and is top assister in the league with eight, advanced creator Dan Crowley’s ice cool decision-making has earnt him 10 direct goal involvements, and Macauley Langstaff is now finding the goalscoring form that was expected after last season’s annihilation of the National League, now up to 11 after a brace in the midweek 3-0 victory over Newport.
In-possession, Notts County are an outstanding team for this level, and if they can just iron out some of the defensive issues a smidgeon, they’ll overtake leaders Stockport.
Wrexham are also in the automatic promotion race, but Phil Parkinson’s side have underwhelmed and relied on individual quality.
The Red Dragons have only played to the standards expected a couple of times this season, and were unconvincing in the midweek 2-1 victory over bottom side Sutton.
“Notts County and Wrexham both have the defensive imperfections, but the crucial difference is the Magpies can create chances at will, whereas their visitors have so rarely played well this season. I think the hosts’ high line will work in their favour against a promotion rival lacking pace in attack.”
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