EFL pundit Gab Sutton picks his best bets from the weekend’s Championship action, while Leagues One & Two are on FA Cup duties.
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Ipswich to win – 10/11
Birmingham City v Ipswich Town
Ipswich have shown no signs of slowing down at the top of the Championship.
What was initially described as bright, early-season form, now looks the basis of a serious promotion challenge from the second-tier’s new boys, who have taken a whopping 34 points from the 39 available.
The reason to doubt the Tractor Boys would be that they have a squad, who’s career histories probably average out around League One, and the idea of that group finding, in the Championship, the consistency required to win automatic promotion would seem a tall order on first inspection.
However, Town have a Head Coach in Kieran McKenna possessing genuine, world-class potential: he could feasibly win a Champions League one day.
The quality of coaching is such that players individually are improving every day, and are now performing well beyond their original level, in a system tailored to their strengths.
McKenna has coached his side to play good football and create a lot of chances but, crucially, what separates him from others with a similar ability, is that his sides play with a plan for what to do if they lose the ball.
There’s relationships all over the park, too: Luke Woolfenden and George Edmundson in defence, Sam Morsy and Massimo Luongo in midfield, Leif Davis and Nathan Broadhead on the left, Broadhead, Conor Chaplin and George Hirst in attack.
And, when Ipswich need some individuality, they’ve got Omari Hutchinson, one of the most dangerous dribblers in the Championship, on the right.
It all fits together so beautifully, whereas hosts Birmingham have lost the three league games that have followed Wayne Rooney’s controversial appointment as Head Coach.
Blues had enjoyed a great start to the season under John Eustace, and it was perhaps because of that, when he was dismissed for a bigger commercial name, there’s more pressure on Rooney than there would have been had he come in at the start of the season.
It feels increasingly like the owners made a mistake sacking Eustace when the team was flying high in sixth, and having gone from a settled environment in which the players knew the plan, and had a manager they liked and trusted, to a potentially more chaotic environment.
The results could be ominous…
“Ipswich have an incredible Head Coach in Kieran McKenna, and while their squad isn’t one you’d instantly associate with a promotion challenge, I’m increasingly of the mind that the quality of coaching is just elevating these players to new heights.”
Watford to win – 5/4
Huddersfield Town v Watford
A start of one win in seven for Darren Moore is understandable, with the former Sheffield Wednesday promotion winner inheriting an imbalanced squad missing eight senior players.
Of those, left-back Josh Ruffels, midfielder Jack Rudoni, wide man Josh Koroma and striker Danny Ward are particularly big misses.
None of the Terriers’ other left-backs are strong defensively, none of the other midfielders have Rudoni’s range of qualities, they’re short on alternative craft out wide, while front-man Delano Burgzorg has had a frustrating time since joining on loan from Mainz 05, and all the other forwards are inexperienced at this level.
Plus, Oli Turton might not be a world-beating right-back, but he’s more assured in that position than Matty Pearson, who is Town’s best fit option in that position due to the struggles of Tom Edwards.
Throw in the fact goalkeeper Lee Nicholls isn’t the stellar shot-stopper of previous seasons, and it’s understandable that Moore is having problems, so the hope is that Huddersfield can limber through to January without Rotherham, QPR, and Sheffield Wednesday gaining too much ground, and they can regroup from there.
There’s 11 games between now and the window opening, however, and while Moore’s up against it, it’s also his job to find a temporary solution that allows Huddersfield to do the basics right: keep their shape, complete the simple passes, be aggressive against the ball, and make heavy defeats a rarity rather than a norm.
Until there’s evidence of that, it’s hard to put any faith in the West Yorkshire outfit, even with home advantage.
Visitors Watford have taken seven points from their last three games, after a 2-2 draw at Millwall in which Valerien Ismael’s side were the better team for 60 minutes, in one of their best performances since the opening day thumping of QPR.
Edo Kayembe came in for a lot of criticism last season, but the Congolese midfielder is defying his doubters this term, and his partnership with Ismael Kone has become the stand-out midfield pairing, providing a mixture of aggression and guile.
Similarly, Vakoun Bayo hasn’t yet lived up to his billing as a goalscorer, with the Hornets missing a clinical number nine, but his work ethic has been outstanding, and perfect for the system.
Elsewhere, Ken Sema has forged a good left-sided understanding with Jamal Lewis, so if Watford can become more clinical whilst ironing out issues defending set pieces, they could ascend into the top half.
“Watford have picked up lately, with seven points from their last three, and for an hour against Millwall they were really in control. Huddersfield, meanwhile, are rocked by injuries and have suffered a few heavy defeats of late.”
Draw – 85/40
Preston North End v Coventry
Preston North End’s drop-off in form has, unusually, coincided with them having more options available.
In the first seven league games, there was a significant injury crisis that meant every senior player was guaranteed a place in the squad, it was all hands to the pump, and even 17-year-old Kian Best was thrown into the fray – they took 19 points.
The underlying numbers weren’t great, though, as they found themselves on the right side of fine margins, and things have swung the other way in the last seven, even though boss Ryan Lowe has had a bigger pool to pick from with the likes of Ben Whiteman and Robbie Brady returning.
The difference in performances between the two sequences of results hasn’t been vast, they’ve just not quite been able to find those moments of magic.
Perhaps it’s a similar story for Coventry, only between this season and last.
In 2022-23, the Sky Blues had match-winners in Gus Hamer and Viktor Gyokeres in midfield and attack respectively, and Mark Robins’ side miss their star duo sorely.
In Monday’s 2-0 loss to West Brom, Robins’ switch from 3-4-1-2 to 3-4-2-1 with the box midfield we saw in 2019-20’s League One title win yielded some success, in terms of control.
Whether it was through lack of confidence, however, lack of quality, familiarity or gumption, they had a mental block in the final third, and they don’t have the kind of players who can win them games individualistically.
These are two sides who have shown potential at different stages, but aren’t playing with too much belief right now.
“20 of Coventry and PNE’s combined 28 league games have either been drawn, or decided by a one-goal margin, so I’m expecting a tight one between two sides who aren’t playing with loads of confidence. It’s not common for me to tip up a draw, but on this occasion it feels right.”
Rotherham to win – 7/5
Rotherham United v Queens Park Rangers
Rotherham’s 2-0 loss at Sheffield Wednesday last Sunday stung.
The Millers don’t have a fierce, parallel rivalry, even if they don’t get on with Doncaster, but the Owls are close to home, and seeing as their relationship with Sheffield United has been friendly in nature through their fans chipping in to save the club on a couple of occasions historically, it’s the blue side of the steel city that gets their disdain.
And, seeing as Rotherham aren’t going to challenge for promotion from the Championship any time soon, those derby games are a big part of how they make their memories at this level.
Last weekend was the perfect opportunity to do that, as well as bolster their own survival chances, because Wednesday had endured the worst start to a season in second-tier history, although they are under new management.
Supporters are understanding that the injury crisis hasn’t helped, with the likes of Cam Humphreys, Tyler Blackett, Jamie Lindsey and Hakeem Odoffin sidelined, but to see their team go down without a fight hurt them, and the reaction to the no-show may go a long way to defining whether they have what it takes to beat the drop.
Boss Matt Taylor is very honest, though: he would have left his side in no doubt what he thought of the performance, and there’s a world in which Rotherham respond defiantly in another relegation six-pointer.
Visitors QPR have just appointed Martí Cifuentes as Head Coach, with the Spaniard claiming his footballing philosophy has been shaped by supporting Barcelona in the 1990s.
Cifuentes couldn’t be further away from the ideology of predecessor Gareth Ainsworth, who employed a defensive approach and liked his sides to punt balls down the channels for Sinclair Armstrong to chase.
On the one hand, a change of tack might come as a relief, but if Cifuentes was to go in demanding his style in it’s most extreme version from the off, it might be too much, too soon, for a group of players that may not be ready to play that way.
“I’m not quite sure what to expect from QPR in Martí Cifuentes, as the stylistic shift may be too big for one week, but I am expecting a spirited response from Rotherham, to Sunday’s no-show at Hillsborough.”
Hull to win – 23/10
West Bromwich Albion v Hull City
West Brom moved up to 5th with a 2-0 victory at Coventry on Monday.
It was an outstanding defensive performance from Carlos Corberan’s side, who managed the game expertly, and restricted their hosts to few chances, without playing brilliantly in possession themselves.
On the one hand, it highlights Corberan as one of the best coaches in the Championship: he showed strong tactical acumen to switch to a back-three, knowing that any of Cedric Kipre, Kyle Bartley and Erik Pieters might struggle without the extra protection, and brought in Alex Mowatt for Brandon Asante to complete a three-man midfield.
It was a great setup that allowed Albion comfortably get the points, while missing several key players including Josh Maja and John Swift.
Nonetheless, there may come a point at which the dearth of options becomes limiting for the Baggies, who host a Hull side with a richer squad – 65-capped, 28-year-old Turkey international Ozan Tufan didn’t even get off the bench in last week’s 1-0 win over Preston North End, for instance.
Plus, the Tiger’s have what West Brom’s last opponents didn’t: a genuine match-winner.
After a positive loan at Cardiff last season, Jaden Philogene has gone up another gear since moving to Humberside permanently, with seven direct goal involvements in his first nine games.
Quick, skilful, elusive, creative, and strong on either foot with an eye for goal, the 21-year-old has a big future – natives hope a fair portion of it will be spent in East Yorkshire.
“Hull have more depth than West Brom, and what they possess in Jaden Philogene may be different to Albion’s recent opponents: a genuine match-winner.”
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