EFL pundit Gab Sutton is back with his best bets for the weekend’s action
Norwich City v West Bromwich Albion
Norwich moved two points off the Play-Offs with a 2-1 victory at Hull last Friday, their sixth win in their last 12 league games.
The Canaries’ recent form gives them a modicum of encouragement, especially after a 3-1 FA Cup replay victory at Bristol Rovers in midweek earnt them a Fourth Round trip to Liverpool.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Yellows are also two points above 14th, and a lot of the points they’ve picked up have either been unconvincing performances, or games against the weaker sides in the league, sometimes both, so it’s hard to say with enormous confidence that their form is sustainable.
Norwich and West Brom have similar squads in terms of ability, but what should separate them between now and the end of the season is the quality of coaching.
City boss David Wagner’s last big achievement in football came in 2017-18, keeping Huddersfield in the Premier League after taking them up the year before, but his output since then has been underwhelming.
Albion, on the other hand, have arguably the second-best manager in the Championship in Carlos Corberán.
The Spaniard has established clear patterns of play with the Baggies, and his out-of-possession work has seen them to 12 clean sheets, the most in the league.
Okay Yokuslu does an excellent job at the base of midfield, centre-backs Kyle Bartley and Cédric Kipré are having fabulous seasons in central defence, likewise Alex Palmer between the sticks.
“Norwich and West Brom have very similar squads at about the same level of ability but, crucially, the Albion have Carlos Corberán and their hosts don’t.”
Plymouth Argyle v Cardiff City
Plymouth Argyle’s 1-1 draw at Huddersfield in Ian Foster’s first game as Head Coach has to be seen as a positive.
The Pilgrims had taken just five points from their first 13 away games, and because their home form is particularly strong, they don’t need their away form to be amazing, they just need to tick off a few more points.
At Home Park, they’ve won seven of their first 13 league games, and scored 33 goals – only Ipswich and Southampton have fired in more on familiar soil.
The Devonians will have to replace key men in midfield in Luke Cundle and Finn Azaz, but Darko Gyabi and Alfie Devine look positive respective replacements, the former as the high-volume link man, the latter as the advanced creator.
Argyle have experience, too, in Lewis Gibson in central defence, Jordan Houghton anchoring things at the base of midfield and Ryan Hardie leading the line with an industrious work ethic.
If Bali Mumba comes to the party, the hosts should welcome Ian Foster in with a victory over a Cardiff side who have lost seven of the last 11 in all competitions.
“I think Argyle have got themselves a talented coach in Ian Foster, likewise he’s found a club with the operational processes to allow him to focus on his work on the grass which is what he does best. I’m expecting a bright start to his home tenure.”
Bristol Rovers v Blackpool
Bristol Rovers have taken 10 points from Matt Taylor’s first seven games in charge, not bad to say they’ve faced four of the top eight in that time.
The Gas have been competitive in the FA Cup, too, drawing 1-1 at Championship side Norwich before losing 3-1 to the Canaries at the Mem in midweek.
The 3-4-1-2 system Taylor won promotion from League Two with at Exeter seems to work for Rovers, especially seeing as the full-back positions aren’t their forte, but in wing-back roles, Luke Thomas and Jack Vale have a lot of attacking freedom.
Taylor’s side also have the skilful Jevani Brown to bring into the number 10 position to link up with the energetic Aaron Collins, feeding off experienced front-man Chris Martin.
Bristol Rovers are building a team that could push for the Play-Offs, even if a 15-point gap suggests they’re cutting it a bit fine in terms of this season.
Visitors Blackpool’s bid is being hampered by chronic inconsistency: Neil Critchley’s side have just recorded back-to-back 2-0 league wins over Lincoln and Exeter, but the only two previous occasions on which they’ve won successive matches in this competition, they’ve subsequently lost.
“Blackpool have won back-to-back games twice before this season, and on both occasions, they lost the next one. I feel the pattern of chronic inconsistency may continue at Bristol Rovers who, under Matt Taylor, are showing themselves to be capable of competing regardless of who they’re up against.”
Port Vale v Wycombe Wanderers
Port Vale don’t look as though they’re going to get what they need in the last 12 days of the transfer window.
Midfield had been the Valiants’ main strength in the first half of the season, but that’s been compromised with the injury to Funso Ojo, and the recall to loanees Oli Arblaster and Alfie Devine from Sheffield United and Tottenham respectively, although the addition of Jensen Weir from Brighton will help.
Andy Crosby’s side, though, desperately need reinforcements in defence and in the wing-back spots, with only Rhys Williams coming in from Liverpool thus far, and up top, where Uche Ikpeazu is set to move to Charlton, James Wilson is injury-prone and Ryan Loft hasn’t cut it.
The various issues have left Vale reliant on out-of-form players, and with a squad propped up by youngsters who have been forced through.
Wycombe, therefore, will feel the timing suits them as Matt Bloomfield’s side target a fifth game without defeat, having climbed from 17th to 14th since Boxing Day.
The Chairboys deserved to beat Lincoln last time out, although they dropped two points through a last gasp equalizer for the Imps, as profligate finishing costs them at times.
Freddie Potts’ return from injury in midfield has unquestionably helped Wanderers, though, who are hoping for the victory that could send them level on points with the top half.
“Wycombe have a great chance to extend their unbeaten run to five games at a Port Vale side who still have a lot of work to do between now and the end of the window, and may still be looking nervously over their shoulders, despite being seven points and six places above the drop zone.”
Harrogate Town v Grimsby Town
Grimsby’s 5-5 draw with Notts County last weekend came with a range of emotions: delight at the first half performance, frustration at failing to win despite leading 2-0, 3-2 and 4-3, joy at Harry Wood’s stunning late equalizer on his debut, and finally encouragement.
Managerless or not, the Mariners’ visitors were far further along their journey of stylistic development than they are, having changed direction to appoint David Artell in November.
So, the fact Town could go toe-to-toe with arguably the best attacking team in the league and more than hold their own is something Artell can take a lot of heart from, as he looks to get across his ideas whilst ticking off the points required to beat the drop.
The former Crewe boss has been backed with three signings, with midfielder Wood on fire straight away after joining on loan from Hull, while forward Justin Obikwu joins on loan from Coventry with positive reviews, and Doug Tharme signs from Blackpool.
It’s been a horrible time for the club off the field; on it, everyone has pulled together admirably, possibly making bonds even stronger.
There’s reason to think Grimsby can get the win they need to possibly extend the gap to the drop zone to 12 points, even at in-form Harrogate.
The North Yorkshire outfit have won five of their last seven, moving two points off the Play-Offs in the process, but they could be without right-back Kayne Ramsay for Saturday’s game.
If George Thomson fills in, Abo Eisa will feel he can cause problems for the converted midfielder one-on-one.
“Grimsby can take encouragement from their attacking performance against Notts County last weekend in the 5-5 draw, and they’re not facing the quality of Jodi Jones and David McGoldrick every week. I reckon they might take the points at Harrogate, even with the hosts in form.”
Stockport to win and Both Teams To Score – 31/10
Notts County v Stockport County
Notts County confirmed on Thursday that Stuart Maynard has been poached from Wealdstone to be their new Head Coach.
Having inspired the Stones to punch above their weight as a part-time club in the National League, it’s a great opportunity for Maynard to progress his career at a club with greater resources, wholly aligned with his stylistic philosophy.
At the same time, the 43-year-old has big shoes to fill after the much-loved Luke Williams was poached from the Magpies by Championship club Swansea.
The silver lining of Williams’ departure for County, unquestionably a blow, is that they do have some fresh eyes on the defensive issues, and maybe a different perspective can help them tighten up at the back without compromising too much of their attacking game.
A new manager might also be more open to upgrading defensive personnel this January, where Williams can be reluctant to bring new players straight into the first XI, through being so specific about what he wants from his players and needing them to know all the details.
For now, though, it’s a watching brief for Maynard, and while Notts County are better going forward than visitors Stockport, the leaders are that much stronger defensively.
Solid, ruthless and efficient, Dave Challinor’s side are the most complete outfit in League Two, with reliable operators like Ben Hinchliffe in goal, Fraser Horsfall in defence, Ryan Croasdale in midfield and Kyle Wootton in attack.
The Hatters have added to that spine with the signing of left-back Ethan Bristow, on loan from Minnesota United, who’ll bring athleticism with Ibou Touray away with Gambia.
This week, County have also added versatile forward Rico Richards on loan from Aston Villa, who’s in a similar ball-carrying mould to Louie Barry, who starred on loan from the same club prior to October’s long-term injury.
“Notts County are better than Stockport going forward, but Stockport are way better than Notts County defensively. I feel that’ll be the difference, as the new Magpies boss watches on.”
